Telengana statehood trap: Wikileak

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 4, 2011
Telengana statehood trap: Wikileak
Winter Session Of Parliament Ends Without Civil Nuclear Liability Legislation — Embassy New Delhi (India)
Reference id: 09NEWDELHI2543
Origin: Embassy New Delhi
Time: Mon, 21 Dec 2009 13:33 UTC
Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
Highlight:
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 002543

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2019
TAGS: PGOV [Internal Governmental Affairs], PTER [Terrorists and Terrorism], PREL [External Political Relations], PINR [Intelligence], KDEM [Democratization], IN [India; Andaman Islands; Lakshadweep Islands; Nicobar Islands]
SUBJECT: WINTER SESSION OF PARLIAMENT ENDS WITHOUT CIVIL
NUCLEAR LIABILITY LEGISLATION

REF: A. NEW DELHI 2516
B. NEW DELHI 2494
C. NEW DELHI 2472
D. NEW DELHI 2441
E. NEW DELHI 2391
F. NEW DELHI 2354
G. NEW DELHI 2000
H. NEW DELHI 1806

Classified By: A/Political Counselor Les Viguerie, reasons 1.5 (b, D)

¶1. (C) Summary: The lack-luster winter session of
Parliament came to an end without passage of the Civil
Nuclear Liabilities legislation. Despite assurances from the
United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government that it intended
to push the legislation through, we did not see any signs of
Congress Party leaders making the case for the liability
legislation within their own party or with the opposition.
The Embassy will engage with the UPA's political leadership
between now and the start of the budget session in February
to underscore the importance of this legislation. As the
Parliament drew to a close, the UPA government abandoned most
of its proposed 62-piece legislative agenda. The opposition
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appeared to have sorted through
its leadership succession issues for now but still put in an
anemic performance on most issues dear to the average voter.
Regional parties and their leaders seem to be quietly
resurgent in Delhi. End Summary.

No Civ-Nuke Liability Legislation This Session
-----

¶2. (U) The Lok Sabha (lower house) adjourned on December 18,
ending its winter session without taking up civil nuclear
liability legislation. The Rajya Sabha (upper house)
remained in session but is expected to adjourn on December
22, after it has taken up bills passed by the Lok Sabha
during its last few days. The end of the Lok Sabha session
means that the civil liability legislation will be deferred
until at least the budget session, which traditionally begins
in the last week of February and ends in mid May with a one
month recess in March-April.

¶3. (C) Despite assurances from NSA Narayanan and other
senior officials that the government would seek to enact the
civil nuclear liability legislation this session, we saw no
signs of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government
making the case for the liability legislation within their
own party or with opposition. The Embassy will engage with
the UPA's political leadership between now and the start of
the budget session to underscore how important the civil
nuclear liability legislation is to the USG and India. As
late as December 16, NSA Narayan had expressed optimism about
the ability of the GOI to push the bill through (Ref A). The
Lok Sabha Speaker was more guarded, telling the Ambassador on
December 16 that the GOI "understands the importance the
United States places" on this bill (septel). Hindustan
Times political editor Vinod Sharma, just back from the
closing session of the Lok Sabha, told Poloff that he had
heard no mention of the pending bill in the halls of
Parliament.

Legislative Agenda: Thumbs Down
-----

¶4. (SBU) Besides the pass on the civil nuclear liability
legislation, the UPA government did not take any action on
other legislation of USG interest in the education and
financial sectors. Despite its clear mandate in the May
parliamentary elections, the UPA government has shown little
stomach for bold initiatives or reforms in both the monsoon
and the winter sessions of parliament. There has been little

NEW DELHI 00002543 002 OF 005


follow up on its campaign promises, with key legislation such
as the set-aside for women in legislatures, social security
for workers in the unorganized/informal economy, quotas for
minorities in educational institutions, and stiffer penalties
for provoking communal violence all remaining on the shelf.
Most of the legislation enacted this session tended to
involve issues over which there was existing consensus or
dealt with technicalities or minor amendments to existing
laws. Embassy will provide a tally of legislation passed by
Parliament this session septel.

Indian National Congress: Thumbs Down
-----

¶5. (SBU) The winter session started with the Congress Party
on the defensive (Ref F) as it caved on the demands of
sugarcane farmers of Uttar Pradesh. Then came the firestorm
over the leak of the Liberian Commission's report on a
destruction of a mosque in Ayodhya 17 years ago (Ref B, E).
The party suffered further when bureaucrats openly
challenging senior ministers in the media, as was the case
with the Copenhagen negotiators publicly defying Environment
Minister Jairam Ramesh over strategy for the conference. The
icing on the winter session cake was the proposed creation of
the state of Telegana (Ref C), a move that has left the
Congress Party's Andhra Pradesh unit in tatters. The
government spent most of this session dodging and weaving,
sometimes from opposition attacks and sometimes from its own
factions. The biggest indignity came when the Speaker had to
adjourn the Lok Sabha one day because of low attendance by
Congress party members.

Home Minister Chidambaram: Thumbs Up
-----

¶6. (SBU) Perhaps the only winner to emerge from the
Congress Party ranks was Home Minister P.C. Chidambaram, who
increasingly became the face of the government in parliament
and in public on issue after issue. He handled the tough
questions in Parliament with equanimity and poise, putting to
use his legal training to respond to opposition attacks with
clarity and brevity. He was the only member of the ruling
party to elicit cheers during the Liberhan report debate in
Parliament when he distilled the arguments as a clash between
the "two ideas of India" in which "the people of India voted
for our idea of India. Only our idea of India will prevail."

The Rest of the Leadership: Thumbs Down
-----

¶7. (SBU) Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi seems to have
lost her whip this parliamentary session. Despite Mrs.
Gandhi's repeated calls to Members of Parliament to improve
their attendance during this session in Parliament, the
attendance in the Congress benches remained thin. The
perception of an omnipotent "High Command" weakened this
session, with Sonia Gandhi's mismanagement of the Telegana
statehood issue, a "classic self goal" in the words of one of
the party's senior leaders.

¶8. (SBU) Prime Minister Manmohan Singh spent much of this
winter session of Parliament out of the country, earning the
ire of the opposition who saw this travel during
Parliamentary sessions as an affront to the institution. PM
Singh had promised 100-day sittings of Parliament each year
but, with a short monsoon session, and a truncated winter
session marked with absences and constant disruptions, his
government missed the target by a long shot. Singh's
government appeared to lack the political will to enact or
even introduce much of Singh's ambitious 100-day legislative
agenda in Parliament.


NEW DELHI 00002543 003 OF 005


¶9. (SBU) Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, the grand old
man of Congress politics, lost his cool twice this winter
session, exploding in front of the television cameras in the
Lok Sabha. The usually calm elder statesman yelled at
Bharatiya Janata Party General Secretary Ananth Kumar and
Communist Party (Marxist) leader Brinda Karat on two separate
occasions in the same week, inviting speculation about what
has made Pranab so bitter. Parliamentary Affairs Minister
Pawan Bansal also proved unimpressive, failing to develop a
cogent strategy to get legislation through.

Rahul Gandhi: Thumbs Up? Thumbs Down? MIA?
-----

¶10. (SBU) Rahul Gandhi stayed out of the news this session of
Parliament. During the initial days Parliament was in
session, Gandhi was credited with negotiating a settlement
with sugarcane farmers (Ref F). He was conspicuously absent
in Parliament, and made very few statements to the press.
For his efforts to reform the Congress party's student and
youth divisions, there were hints of defiance from the cadres
who feared losing their hard-earned patronage positions to
Rahul's brand of transparency and democracy within the
organizations.

Telegana Movement: Thumbs Up
-----

¶11. (SBU) After 60 years of sometimes armed agitation and
conflict, the move to carve a Telegana state out of Andhra
Pradesh succeeded. K. Chandrasekhar Rao, a regional
politician, went on a hunger strike and forced the UPA to
cave on the 11th day of his fast amid reports of his
deteriorating health and mobilization of student protestors
on the street. The GOI announcement on December 9 that it
would initiate the process of formation of a new Telangana
state split the state's Congress Party through the middle as
all politicians were forced to choose pro- or anti-Telangana
positions (Ref C). The political ramifications are still
playing out in Andhra Pradesh but Parliament saw immediate
fallout when some Congress Party members joined the
opposition in raising slogans against the creation of a new
state.

Regional Parties: Thumbs Up
----

¶12. (SBU) Despite their poor performance in the 2009
elections, regional parties have shown signs of resurgence
this parliamentary session, hammering the Congress-led
government on inflation, Liberhan and Telangana. Chief
Minister of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) Mayawati put aside her love
for building self glorifying monuments this winter session
long enough to jump on the state-carving bandwagon. Sensing
Congress Party paralysis over the Telangana issue, Mayawati
stoked the fire by asking the UPA to split her state into
four smaller parts. Besides enjoying the Congress Party
discomfort, Mayawati has calculated that quartering U.P.
would adversely impact Congress party's recent electoral
gains in the state thereby ensuring that smaller regional
parties like her's would be relevant in coalition politics in
Delhi. Mayawati also managed to maintain peace and quiet in
Ayodhya on December 6, the anniversary of the Babri Masjid
destruction. Regional party Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS)
was a big winner with new state to show for its efforts.

BJP: Thumbs Down
-----

¶13. (SBU) The BJP's credible performance in Parliament and
the shake up in its leadership failed to stop the continuing
decline in the BJP's fortunes. The vitriolic public and

NEW DELHI 00002543 004 OF 005


private blame games and bloodletting that started after the
May 2009 election loss have subsided but it is not clear that
the party made any effort to understand the reasons for its
rejection at the polls, let alone implement a credible
strategy to address its failings. It continues to struggle
with the old question of how much Hindutva is right for it,
not realizing that the country has moved on and young Indians
do not care for the culture and identity themes of the 1990s.


BJP Leadership: Thumbs Up
-----

¶14. (SBU) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) elder statesman L.
K. Advani quit his Leader of the Opposition (Lok Sabha)
position on December 18 and gracefully exited the rough and
tumble of 24/7 politics. He stepped aside but will remain
relevant because he has ensured his four closest aides --
Arun Jaitely, Sushma Swaraj, Venkaiah Naidu and Ananth Kumar
-- will have positions of power and influence within the
party. Despite a turbulent term fraught with electoral
disappointments, outgoing Bharatiya Janata Party President
Rajnath Singh scored a victory this winter session. He
energized his party's Hindu nationalist base during the
Liberhan debate, emphasizing that the destroyed Babri Masjid
site was, is, and will remain, a Hindu temple. (Ref B)

¶15. (SBU) Newly anointed Lok Sabha Leader of the Opposition
Sushma Swaraj had a successful winter session. Not only did
she ensure her ascension to the top rungs of the BJP -- a
first for a woman in the strongly male dominated party --
Swaraj also put on fiery and passionate displays during
Parliamentary debate, earning some admirers. Leader of the
Rajya Sabha Arun Jaitley put his legal wits to good use
during the Liberhan debate (Ref A). He was was unrelenting
and sharp in his criticism of the errors in the report, and
employed wit and humor to point out the waste and
inefficiency integral to the government's 17-year production
of a stale report. BJP leader from Andhra Pradesh Venkiah
Naidu scored points for his party during the Liberhan debate.
He also stands to benefit from the Congress party's bungling
of the Telegana issue.

Aam Aadmi (Common man): Thumbs Down
-----

¶16. (SBU) The interests of the common man received short
shrift in this session of Parliament. Steep price hikes
plagued the food markets, but neither major national party --
the Congress or BJP -- seemed to focus earnestly on this
issue. The BJP tried to organize protests in Delhi against
the price hikes, but these were very thinly attended and did
not inspire confidence. Parliament seemed to disintegrate
into melee after melee every other day, with the Lok Sabha
adjourning several times during this already truncated
Parliamentary session. The Congress Party seemed to need a
reminder that it won the 2009 general elections, had a
mandate to govern, and would not face the electorate again
for four more years. The BJP played spoiler on issues such
as the Liberhan report, but failed to fire the imagination of
the electorate. In the end, regional parties and the
communists filled the void left by the national parties.

Comment: Preparing for Civil Nuke Liability Debate
-----

¶17. (C) On the civil liability legislation, while there have
been only scattered voices opposed to this legislation to
date, we should recognize that there has been little public
debate over the legislation yet. The issue has the potential
to generate heated and passionate public debate, which will
make the GOI even more gun-shy. We will need to consider

NEW DELHI 00002543 005 OF 005


carefully how we can work to change the environment in which
the legislation is being considered so we can be armed to
refute some of the more outrageous charges we're likely to
hear.
ROEMER

http://www.cablegatesearch.net/search.php?q=telangana&sort=1



Reference id aka Wikileaks id #242472 ? 
Subject Telangana - A Bandh And A Roar Stir A United Response
Origin American Consulate Hyderabad (India)
Cable time Tue, 5 Jan 2010 13:01 UTC
Classification UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Source http://wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/10HYDERABAD2.html
History First published on Fri, 26 Aug 2011 02:34 UTC
Modified on Thu, 1 Sep 2011 23:24 UTC
Media 
Comments 0 Comments
VZCZCXRO0892 PP RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHPW DE RUEHNEH #0002/01 0051301 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 051301Z JAN 10 FM AMCONSUL HYDERABAD TO RUEHNEH/AMCONSUL HYDERABAD PRIORITY 0245 RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0237 INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0029 RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0028 RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0028 RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 0028 RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0028 RUEHVI/AMEMBASSY VIENNA 0012 RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0028 RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0021 RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI RHMFIUU/USCENTCOM CCJ5 - PERSONAL FOR MACDILL AFB FL RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
Hide headerUNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HYDERABAD 000002 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV [Internal Governmental Affairs], PREL [External Political Relations], PTER [Terrorists and Terrorism], PINR [Intelligence], KDEM [Democratization], IN [India; Andaman Islands; Lakshadweep Islands; Nicobar Islands] SUBJECT: TELANGANA - A BANDH AND A ROAR STIR A UNITED RESPONSE REF: REFS: A) HYDERABAD SITUATION UPDATE DEC 31, B) HYDERABAD SITUATION UPDATE DEC 29, C) HYDERABAD 121 HYDERABAD 00000002 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Two "bandhs" (strikes) and a rally over the past week brought different regions of Andhra Pradesh (AP) to a standstill. Facing down significant government opposition, the "Vidyarthi Garjana" (Student's Roar) rally organizers pulled off a well attended and peaceful protest in Hyderabad. Local law enforcement insists "anti-social" elements are assisting the students. Universities begin to develop contingencies to prevent the loss of the academic year due to campus closures. Both pro- and anti-statehood student groups pledged to continue demonstrations throughout AP on January 5 even as the GoI convenes a meeting of all recognized political parties in the state to discuss the issue. The success of this all-party meeting in addressing the equities of these different groups will determine the prospects for calm in the following days and weeks. END SUMMARY. Sequential Shutdowns Lead to United Action ------------------------------------------ ¶2. (U) Two "bandhs" and a rally over the past week brought different regions of AP to a near standstill. On December 30, the bandh called by the Joint Action Committee of political parties (JAC-P) advocating separate statehood for the Telangana region resulted in wide-scale business closures throughout Hyderabad and the Telangana region (Ref A). Following on the heels of this largely peaceful strike, the Telangana student JAC's (TS-JAC) faced down local authorities to hold a "Vidyarthi Garjana" (Student's Roar) rally on January 3 endorsing the same cause. Meanwhile, the student JAC of the "United Andhra" (JAC-UA) movement answered both events by forcing a general strike on both the Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions on January 4 to underscore their resistance to bifurcating the state. [NOTE: There are three regions in AP comprising 23 districts. Hyderabad, the state capital, is one of ten districts located in the northwestern Telangana region. The smallest region, Rayalaseema, includes the four districts to the southwest of the state. The Coastal Andhra region contains all nine districts along the Bay of Bengal. END NOTE] Both pro- and anti-statehood student groups pledged to continue their demonstrations throughout the state on January 5 and beyond even as the GoI convenes a meeting of all recognized political parties in the state to discuss the issue. Telangana Students Roar But Don't Bite -------------------------------------- ¶3. (U) The TS-JAC invited students from colleges throughout the region to participate in the January 3 "Vidyarthi Garjana" rally on the campus of Osmania University (OU) in Hyderabad. Student organizers had predicted that a massive mobilization would bring as many as 500,000 people to the rally. In the end, approximately 80,000 students participated in a surprisingly well organized and peaceful outpouring of support for groups championing Telangana statehood. ¶4. (U) The TS-JAC first announced plans for the rally on 27 December, in the midst of a standoff with the state government and local law enforcement over attempts to both take a number of hunger-striking students into protective custody and to close the OU student hostels housing many of the protesting students (in order to discourage further civil unrest). The JAC-P appealed to the students to protest peacefully and at the same time asked police to show restraint when interacting with the students. The deadlock was broken on December 28 when the deteriorating condition of the students forced police to take the hunger-strikers to Gandhi Hospital for medical care and the AP High Court struck down a second government order closing the student hostels. (Ref B) ¶5. (U) In order to forestall further incidents of civil unrest HYDERABAD 00000002 002.2 OF 003 by "anti-social elements," local authorities refused permission for the January 3 rally and actively took measures to prevent participants from coming to Hyderabad (similar to those taken on December 10 (ref C)). These included establishing roadblocks on the major arteries entering Hyderabad and monitoring regional road and rail transportation routes in order to turn back or detain groups of protesters. Undeterred, the students petitioned the High Court to allow the protest to go forward. As tensions rose, additional police personnel arrived from neighboring districts to reinforce the police attempting to check the steady flow of people onto the OU campus. On the evening of January 2, the High Court directed local police to allow the rally to proceed for two hours in the afternoon with the stipulations among others that only students could attend the rally and that political leaders could neither participate in nor speak at the event. ¶6. (U) The day was not completely free from invective. Some student leaders incited the crowd with inflammatory statements such as warning political parties of severe consequences if they blocked statehood for the region, and threatening to prevent the return to Hyderabad of people who visit family in other regions during the Sankranti/Pongal holiday in mid-January. [COMMENT: This appeared to be the latest invective against the "settlers" from Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, many of whom have lived in Hyderabad for generations. END COMMENT] Still, the crowd stayed peaceful as other student leaders made more concrete demands including: the dismissal of all legal cases against students; an INR 10 lakh (USD 25,000) payment to the families of those who have died or committed suicide during the protests; that all political parties make their position on the Telangana issue public prior to the January 5 meeting in New Delhi; and that this meeting set a clear timeline for the formation of a Telangana state (that does not include passing a resolution in the AP State Assembly). The assembled students also declared 2010 as the year of "Telangana Sadhana" (Achieving Telangana) and proclaimed that no student would be allowed to take exams until statehood is attained. The Lost (Academic) Year ------------------------ ¶7. (SBU) Even as the organizers made their demands, many students began to voice concerns about possibly losing a full academic year due to university shut downs. K.C. Reddy, Chairman of the AP State Council of Higher Education (APSCHE), told Congenoff that a University Grants Commission (UGC) of India rule requiring that students attend a minimum of 75 percent of classes "will not be compromised." He said that if the student agitations do not settle down by January 18 - after the Sankranti holiday - that a meeting of University Vice Chancellors will meet to determine if the academic schedule can be extended and if exams can be postponed (for a third time) until April or May. However, the APSCHE Chairman averred that a solution would be found and cited the 1969-1971 Telangana student agitations. At that time state-sanctioned universities extended the length of all degree programs by one academic year (forcing student to postpone post-academic plans by one year). Radical Leaders Exhort Students to Action ----------------------------------------- ¶8. (U) In addition to student leaders, certain other speakers managed to enter the OU campus and address the rally. JAC-P Chairman Professor K. Kondanda Ram exhorted the gathering to continue leading the movement in support of statehood and not to be deterred by (anti-statehood) Coastal Andhra Member of Parliament (MP) Lagadapati Rajagopal's "money power" or Rayalaseema MP Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy's "muscle power." Vara Vara Rao, a revolutionary writer who acted as an intermediary for the CPI(Maoist) in talks with YSR Reddy's new Congress state government in 2004, noted that the agitations would take a HYDERABAD 00000002 003.2 OF 003 "serious turn" if statehood was not granted. M. Krishna Madiga, President of the Madiga Reservation Porata Samiti (MRPS), claimed that the demands for a separate state would result in more water, jobs, and self-respect for the people of Telangana. [NOTE: On April 30, 2009 in Hyderabad, MRPS activists disrupted an election rally being addressed by Congress President Sonia Gandhi at the same time MRPS members attempted to torch the Congress party's state headquarters. Krishna Madiga's son died of burns sustained during the attempted arson. END NOTE] Police Fear a Return of the Naxals ---------------------------------- ¶9. (SBU) Local contacts and press report that law enforcement believes CPI(Maoist) elements are helping to organize some of the TS-PAC activities. Deputy Speaker of the AP Legislative Assembly N. Manohar told CongenOff that the police are convinced that, like in 1969, the current unrest over Telangana statehood will result in a successful recruiting campaign by Naxalite forces in the region. He noted that many former Naxalite leaders emerged from the earlier agitations and they garnered significant sympathy throughout Telangana due to their support of statehood. Manohar, who represents the Tenali constituency in Coastal Andhra's Guntur district, also remarked that many of the "radical members" of the TS-JAC are 30-plus year old students from the Madiga community, who are well past future career concerns and will continue to agitate whether or not the current academic year is lost. Students Organizing Into an Independent Political Force --------------------------------------------- ---------- ¶10. (SBU) COMMENT: Over the past month, a plethora of JACs have emerged around AP to represent the interests of different groups. The JAC-P enables pro-Telangana political parties to agitate while ensuring that none can claim to be the sole champions of statehood. It also allows them to work together to call peaceful bandhs that attempt to wrest the initiative from the hands of student groups. Meanwhile, the leaders of the TS-JAC (students) appear unconcerned about little other than the goal of achieving statehood as quickly as possible. Their successful organization of a large, peaceful rally in the face of significant government opposition and without any charismatic politicians to attract participants shows their growing strength and sophistication. On the other hand, the anti-statehood JAC-UA statements make clear their interest lies in continued access to the vibrant employment and investment opportunities in Hyderabad. Unlike the TS-JAC, which is concentrated in Hyderabad, the JAC-AU is dispersed across two regions and has not been able to organize anything on the scale of the "Vidyarthi Garjana." Still their bandhs have effectively shut down significant parts of both Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema. The topic of statehood for Telangana has resulted in competing groups formed into two grievously polarized camps, each with the proven ability to disrupt daily life in the state - and quickly foment violence if they believe it serves their ends. Whether the all-party meeting in New Delhi can address these groups' demands will determine the prospects for calm in the following days and weeks. The national leadership of the Congress party has its work cut out. END COMMENT. KEUR
http://www.cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=10HYDERABAD2&q=telangana

Reference id aka Wikileaks id #241642 ? 
Subject Telangana - The Statehood Trap
Origin American Consulate Hyderabad (India)
Cable time Thu, 24 Dec 2009 11:43 UTC
Classification UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Source http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09HYDERABAD137.html
History First published on Fri, 26 Aug 2011 02:34 UTC
Modified on Thu, 1 Sep 2011 23:24 UTC
Media 
Comments 0 Comments
VZCZCXRO5094 PP RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHPW DE RUEHNEH #0137/01 3581143 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 241143Z DEC 09 FM AMCONSUL HYDERABAD TO RUEHNEH/AMCONSUL HYDERABAD PRIORITY 0237 RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC INFO RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI RHMFIUU/USCENTCOM CCJ5 - PERSONAL FOR MACDILL AFB FL RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0023 RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0016 RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0024 RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0023 RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0023 RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 0023 RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0023 RUEHVI/AMEMBASSY VIENNA 0007
Hide headerUNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HYDERABAD 000137 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV [Internal Governmental Affairs], PREL [External Political Relations], PTER [Terrorists and Terrorism], PINR [Intelligence], KDEM [Democratization], IN [India; Andaman Islands; Lakshadweep Islands; Nicobar Islands] SUBJECT: TELANGANA - THE STATEHOOD TRAP REF: REFERENCES: A) NEW DELHI 2472, B) HYDERABAD 121, C) HYDERABAD 124 HYDERABAD 00000137 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The escalating tensions in Andhra Pradesh (AP) over the future status of Telangana led to acts of violence overnight as buses were torched and rail transport halted. Authorities imposed a ban on public meetings until New Year's Day. The December 11 announcement of the center's support for the creation of the new state led to sustained public protests and sporadic violence and a period of backroom political maneuvering and public posturing by leaders of both the pro-statehood and anti-statehood camps followed. On December 23, GOI Home Minister P. Chidambaram made a second statement declaring that the situation had `altered' and needed further review. Proponents of statehood declared this a betrayal and called for 48-hour `bandh' (strike) throughout the region. END SUMMARY. Another 48-Hour Bandh Disrupts Andhra Pradesh --------------------------------------------- ¶2. (SBU) Starting on the evening of December 23, demonstrations occurred in various areas of Hyderabad and throughout Telangana. The regional transportation system was again targeted by protests disrupting bus and rail lines. While media reports of the ensuing violence indicate that as many as 30 buses were burnt and government property was vandalized, the damage to private property was minimal. To counter the expected disturbances, local law enforcement doubled the police presence in the city to 18,000 personnel and deployed the paramilitary Rapid Action Forces to sensitive areas throughout Telangana. The state also issued a ban on all gatherings of more than four people until January 1, 2010. Against this background, the local police provided international hi-tech companies with assurances that any disturbances around Osmania University - on the other side of the city - would not adversely impact their ability to continue operations or the movement of people to and from their place of employment. Another Violent Reaction to the Home Minister --------------------------------------------- ¶3. (SBU) On December 23 GOI Home Minister Chidambaram made a statement on Telangana statehood (his second) which noted that the `situation in Andhra has altered' and asserted the `need to hold wide-ranging consultations with all political parties in the state.' This statement prompted Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) leader K. Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR), whose hunger strike provided the initial spark for the current crisis, to hold a press conference later that day characterizing the Home Minister's latest statement as a `betrayal of the Telangana cause' since `no time-frame was fixed for the wide-ranging consultations.' KCR then went on to threaten major civil unrest if the Center backed down on its pledge and called for a 48-hour `bandh' starting December 24 in conjunction with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and other parties espousing statehood. [NOTE: That the press conference was held in the residence of Jana Reddy, former AP Home Minister under Congress Chief Minister YSR Reddy, highlights the internal divisions in the state party on this issue. END NOTE] Meanwhile, fourteen Congress MPs from the Telangana region huddled in New Delhi, threatening to resign. Chidambaram's First Statement ----------------------------- ¶4. (U) Faced with escalating protests and a prominent politician on an indefinite hunger strike, Chidambaram made a `midnight' announcement on December 11 that the process of carving the Telangana region out of AP to form a separate state (reftel A) would start. This was met first by sporadic civil unrest (reftel B) and subsequently by a wave of Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) resigning en masse from the State Assembly (reftel C). On December 15 Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other senior Congress party leaders called for calm and promised consultations and a `go slow' approach. This reduced HYDERABAD 00000137 002.2 OF 003 tension in the state's other regions - Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema - as protests wound down to watch and wait. On December 14, the AP Speaker of the House adjourned the state legislature `sine die' and effectively postponed the need to decide whether to accept the tendered resignations indefinitely. Calm in the Eye of the Storm ---------------------------- ¶5. (SBU) Over the ensuing week the political maneuvering continued unabated, though fairly calmly. Congress MLAs from both `Pro-Telangana' (statehood) and `United Andhra' (anti-statehood) camps converged on New Delhi to lobby the senior Congress leadership. Both sides heard coordinated statements that a decision would be taken only after consensus was reached, but neither group appeared open to conciliatory action. Speculation regarding the future status of Hyderabad seemed ever present as politicians from all three of the state's regions staked a claim to AP's capital city and commercial center. It quickly became the central point of contention and KCR declared on December 21 that `If anyone says a word that Hyderabad is not part of Telangana, we will cut out their tongues.' ¶6. (SBU) AP regional opposition parties also faced splits in their ranks and quickly backtracked from their earlier support of a separate state for Telangana. Even as he criticized the Congress leadership for making a hasty decision without consulting the people of the state, Telugu Desam Party leader N. Chandrababu Naidu cautiously adopted a position mirroring the Congress position. Praja Rajyam Party leader K. Chiranjeevi made a more decisive break with his party's election stance and openly declared his opposition to dividing the state. The famous actor then announced that he also would tender his resignation to the State Assembly. ¶7. (SBU) As the backroom maneuvering continued, the Congress MP from Vijayawada Rajagopal Lagadapati submitted his resignation to the Lok Sabha Speaker. He then sought to replicate KCR's success and declared his own indefinite fast in support of a unified state. Like KCR, Rajagopal was taken into police custody outside of Hyderabad and transported to his home district. On December 20, Mr. Rajagopal escaped from the Government Hospital in Vijayawada only to resurface the next day at the Nizam Institute of Sciences (NIMS) in Hyderabad - the same place KCR stayed during his fasting. Tensions began to rise as Pro-Telangana supporters rallied to protest the presence in Hyderabad of a prominent proponent of a unified state. How to Avoid Commitment and Alienate Supporters --------------------------------------------- -- ¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: Home Minister Chidambaram's December 23 statement went either too far or not far enough, depending upon the audience. Many local observers took it to mean that the Congress leadership has decided not to decide and instead has put the issue on a backburner. With Telangana's prospects for separate statehood unresolved, the simmering unrest is likely to continue. Meanwhile the perception grows that the Congress leadership is unable to unify and control its members, thus providing ammunition to rival parties throughout the state and the country and also to factions within the party. Still, a quick decision by Congress to end this dance in the current environment would only precipitate action by whichever of the two camps feels aggrieved by the outcome. ¶9. (SBU) Congress has painted itself into a corner. The party would like nothing better than a return to the dominant position they enjoyed under recently deceased AP Chief Minister YSR Reddy. However, with no easy way to put the statehood genie back in the bottle, the leadership will play for time and hope that people tire of the disruptions to their daily lives before HYDERABAD 00000137 003.2 OF 003 unequivocal movement towards statehood is required - a risky strategy given the escalating rhetoric, protests, and violence of the last few weeks. END COMMENT. LEONI

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