It is advantage NDA in LS polls

It is advantage NDA in LS polls
Anita Saluja
First Published : 26 Feb 2009 01:34:00 AM IST
Last Updated : 26 Feb 2009 09:49:09 AM IST
NEW DELHI: Big and uncertain states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal will determine the final outcome of the Lok Sabha polls, besides UP and Bihar where small shifts will make all the difference in the formation of the 15th Lok Sabha.
As per the study conducted by Economic and Political Weekly, the Congress-led UPA and the BJP-led NDA cannot sweep the polls, nor can they be swept aside in the coming elections. What will decide the final outcome is the result in every single seat, the smallest of shifts.
With the decline in the incumbency factor, the NDA has an edge over the UPA, since there are as many as 84 seats that are under the former, which includes Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Punjab and Bihar, while only 55 seats are under the UPA, including Tamil Nadu, Assam, Goa, which will stand for a mid-term review.
It is advantage NDA when it comes to the States where elections were recently held - in states like Jammu & Kashmir, Rajasthan, Delhi, Mizoram, Nagaland, Puducherry, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and also Himachal Pradesh, Tripura and Meghalaya. In these 116 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP has a slight advantage, because 72 of these seats are in states where the party will press its probationary advantage.
The UPA has a bigger stake in the States which go to the polls simultaneously with the State elections or after a year. Under this category come Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Sikkim, Orissa, Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Arunachal Pradesh, which account for 137 seats in the Lok Sabha. Orissa is the only NDAruled state. Since these states are not the routine oscillation states, it is not easy to project the outcome simply on past performance and pattern.
In Andhra Pradesh a new political formation (Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam) has cropped up and in Haryana, Bhajan Lal’s Haryana Janhit Congress could lead to a new configuration of the party system.
While in Jharkhand there could be an unpredictable response due to the political mess, in Maharashtra and Orissa the ruling coalitions have a long incumbency to defend.
From THE NEW INDIAN EXPRESS 26, February 2009